Economy

Central bankers have been all too similar to ancient cultists doing ineffective rain dances, ever since they drew the wrong lesson from the early 1980s.

Most likely, state employees and establishment media editors are under pressure to put as positive spin as possible on economic news since the alternative might result in a full-blown panic.

This is terrible news for Rishi Sunak, as it guarantees that – barring fiddling the figures – his pledge going to fail.

The economic slowdown we have seen thus far, has nothing to do with interest rate rises. But is primarily the result of millions of households and thousands of businesses responding to higher energy costs.

There was always something of a cargo cult about it though. The religious belief was that by creating a fast transport link, wealth would magically flow north.

In large part, the plight of Britain’s councils is due to the 2010-15 Cameron government’s decision to make local authorities pick up the tab for bailing out the banks.

At worst, the UK might face an investor flight, with nobody outside the UK wanting to take on UK debt.

Although bad enough in itself, pushing more than a million households into mortgage arrears doesn’t stop with homelessness. As more than a million households rein-in their spending in a desperate effort to keep a roof over their heads, consumer demand across the economy is going to collapse.

This is not a crisis waiting to happen, but one which is already breaking over us.

... claiming that pay – which has been flat since 2009 – is the cause of inflation is like claiming that diarrhoea is the cause of food poisoning.