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A brief moment of clarity

Christmas sales down

Last year was bad for anyone working or investing in the UK retail sector.  Barely a week went by without a profit warning, a voluntary administration or a closure.  The reason for this is simple and obvious enough to understand for anyone who wants to: after a decade of austerity …

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Puncturing the university Ponzi bubble

University finance

Run a Google search on “university debt” and you will be overwhelmed by stories concerning the growing mountain of student loan debt; projected to top £1.2 trillion by 2049. With an eye-watering (in the post-2008 climate) interest rate of 6.3 percent, there are serious concerns about graduates ability to repay …

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Britain’s Christmas closing down sale

UK retail apocalypse

The tsunami of bankruptcies that has washed along UK High Streets this year has left mainstream media excuses looking decidedly lame.  Those who still remember the long hot days of May and June 2018 might also remember how news outlets blamed poor sales figures on the heatwave and the world …

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The everything pin

The everything pin

According to those who live in the world of finance, every bubble is in search of a pin.  The idea being that as the “smart money” moves into a particular asset, finance journalists take notice and spread the word.  Pretty soon, everyone with cash to spare has invested their savings …

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Drop the Brexit BS; this is serious

Yellow Vest

Among the less endearing habits of the anti-Brexit media is a tendency to latch onto any negative economic news as “evidence” that leaving the European Union will have a negative impact on the UK economy (it may actually be far worse than that).  For instance, Mary-Ann Russon at the BBC …

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The shape of things to come


Despite a series of stock market scares, see-sawing oil prices and central banks jacking up interest rates, it seems likely that we are going to get through 2018 without experiencing the economic crash that many expected at the start of the year.  But while we may breathe a sigh of …

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Be careful what you wish for

Wishing well

Recession was expected to follow when oil prices spiked up to $80 per barrel earlier this year.  Instead, increased output from Saudi Arabia and a series of exemptions for countries importing Iranian oil have helped prices fall back to a less recessionary $50 per barrel. In response, US President Trump …

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The view from outside the bubble

Economic media bubble

If there is one thing economic journalists love it is a “mystery.”  A popular favourite in recent years has been the famous “productivity mystery” in which, despite full employment, both output and wages have remained depressed.  This month saw another – somewhat similar – conundrum; the “energy-GDP mystery.”  A peculiarly …

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A dangerous exercise in self-delusion

Blind economists

Repeat after me, very slowly: There is no such thing as EXTERNAL on a finite planet.  This phrase ought to be printed in 24pt text at the very start of every economics textbook.  And no, I am not being pedantic here.  The prevailing belief among economists that there are things …

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Of rats, cobras and electric vehicles

Cobra effect

During the Vietnam War, American aid workers became concerned about the spread of disease resulting from a big increase in the rat population.  Since the ongoing conflict prevented any serious attempt to systematically eradicate the rats, the aid agencies devised a clever scheme to enlist the help of the indigenous …

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