Economy

After decades of experience proving that economists are wrong and that central bankers are the wrongest of all, how seriously should we take the latest IMF claims that the UK economy will avoid a recession?

For the internet providers, the gathering loss of corporate and government broadband contracts is likely to be as big a hit as the loss of millions of household consumers, since historically, these have been prepared to pay higher business rates for their internet connection.

The real risk though, is that we are on the verge of a new stagflationary era – which rising interest rates have accelerated – in which the cost of energy-dependent essentials remains high even as the prices of discretionary goods and services deflate.

For more than a century, economists have speculated about what would happen when world oil production reached a peak.  The consensus view which has won out thus far is that the oil price would just keep increasing.  Indeed, there would not be a single peak of oil production, because each …

Today, “playing out” is recognised by psychologists as one of the means by which children come to terms with traumatic events.  But the dark events themselves become lost in the mists of time, removing the trauma from the echoes they leave behind for our delicate, civilised ears.  Consider children’s nursery …

The technocrats at the Bank of England have come in for more criticism as a result of Chief Economist Huw Pill’s remarks during an American podcast.  As Michael Race and Vishala Sri-Pathma at the BBC report, the former Goldman Sachs banker told listeners that: “Somehow in the UK, someone needs …

The deception of the past decade is that central banks have been “printing money” via quantitative easing.  This may have helped boost confidence in the real economy that it was safe to borrow once more.  But other than the printing of the tiny volumes of cash, which account for less …

Physicist Albert Bartlett made the case that humanity’s greatest weakness is our inability to understand the exponential function.  If this is so, then surely our inability to process time must be our second greatest weakness.  As I wrote in my book, The Consciousness of Sheep: “The overwhelming majority of us …

Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the bailout of Credit Suisse last week, apologists have taken to the airwaves to claim that we should not cast blame on the central bankers.  There is a superficial case that can be made here, insofar as the management of SVB seems …

It is 2015.  Tom has a job paying £1000 a month.  He spends £500 on rent, and £75 each on energy, food and transport.  He spends another £25 on assorted occasional items like clothing.  The local council takes £150 in taxes.  He spends another £50 on various subscriptions such as …